But at other times, their online debate of policy and weaknesses projects chaos into ranks that clearly do not need it. When Russian sources warned of Russia’s troops being surrounded in Lyman this summer, it was likely a ruse designed to distract from Moscow executing a calm withdrawal. At times, it may be purposeful disinformation. So far, the most information we have had about Ukraine’s operations has been from pro-Russian occupation officials and military bloggers. This will be vital in the weeks ahead: Moscow appears to process bad news very poorly and publicly. Moscow instead has paraded its dysfunctionality in full. The Ukrainians appear to have patience, and the ability to keep their plan confidential enough to carry it out methodically. Kyiv has so far managed to keep secret its intentions, preparations, and any possible false starts. Prigozhin’s outburst has so far resulted only in slight territorial changes in control around the symbolic city of Bakhmut.īut it has more significantly revealed a seismic difference in how Russia and Ukraine’s war machines are functioning. What is key is the resultant display of staggering disunity in Putin’s ranks – something unthinkable in February 2022. As with so much Kremlinology, the truth is for now unknowable, but also not that consequential. He may also still need Prigozhin as a foil to a powerful military. Prigozhin’s remarkable survival, after this bout of public criticism of the Kremlin’s men, is an expression of both need and fear: Putin perhaps fears the backlash Prigozhin’s removal would cause, and also needs Wagner forces to maintain their positions. Ukrainian troops fire a howitzer towards Russian fighters near the town of Soledar, in Ukraine's eastern Donetsk region. He received almost no official public response to his pleas, and it is unclear whether they altered any of the Russian Ministry of Defense’s supply patterns. The chief of the Russian mercenary group Wagner, Yevgeny Prigozhin, spent 10 days in an elaborate conversation essentially with himself on Telegram, warning of Wagner’s collapse without more artillery shells from Russian top brass. The recent assaults around Bakhmut are evidence in point. The aim of this confusion is clearly to keep Moscow off-balance, unable to assess whether each new attack by Ukrainian forces is “it,” or just another probe. A lot of what is happening is not playing out in public. It is possible we only learn the counteroffensive has begun when its first tangible results are revealed. Over the past month, Zelensky’s obfuscatory comments that the operation’s “first important steps” would “happen soon,” or needed “a bit more time,” have just doubled down on Kyiv’s initial pledge they would not announce its start. Say it has yet to get underway, and any mounting losses Russia sustains are just in the cut and thrust of normal frontline attrition. Declare the operation underway, and the clock ticks immediately for the first results. Given the volume of US and NATO hardware, advice and training poured into this operation – with a senior US official recently telling Congress the US had coached Kyiv in how to “surprise” – it seems fair to assume this delay in declaring the start of the assault is a tactic, not the product of Ukrainian chaos, disorganization, and a relatively wet April leaving the ground too soft.Īnnouncing the start is entirely in the gift of Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky. Indicators have mounted that Ukraine's anticipated offensive may be underway. Yet officially, Ukraine’s counteroffensive has yet to start. The signs have gathered in pace over the past month, and are the opening traces of the “shaping operations” that a senior US official told CNN began last week. The relentless pinpoint bombing of Russian military targets the hints of small Ukrainian landings along the occupied eastern bank of the Dnipro River and the blasts hitting fuel depots and infrastructure inside Russia’s own borders and in occupied cities – these could all be seen as indicators.Īlso, too, a helicopter attack we witnessed against a Russian target the persistent signals from occupied officials of Ukrainian probing attacks along the Zaporizhzhia frontline and the evacuation of the civilian population in occupied areas. Over five weeks reporting along the southern frontlines, it became hard to conceive that - at least in its limited, preparatory stages - Ukraine’s counteroffensive had not got under way in late April. But they were still beige - the paintjob they would have had for use in Iraq and Afghanistan – suggesting they were at least a spray can or mud-shower away from being ready for use on the front line. Where the armored vehicles were ultimately destined for was unclear. The columns of dozens of US-supplied M-ATVs kept coming, preceded by a police car, lights blaring, and tailed by dozens of muddy, civilian saloons.
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